🔗 Share this article

It was two months ago that the Villa attacker stood on the Sunderland turf, looking confused as Unai Emery scolded him for failing to anticipate a through-ball. At that point, as Villa went six without a win, it wasn't clear whether Rogers' form were a symptom or the reason of the team's more general malaise.

“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”

This weekend, in contrast, the touchline reaction proved to be decidedly more positive. After the in-form star drilled in his second to restore Villa's lead, Emery tore off his jacket, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club marched on to a tenth straight victory and after failing to win their opening six games, find themselves a mere three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.

Are They Legitimate Hopefuls?

It remains a rather hard proposition to resolve. Past precedent, a general sense of the club, argues against it. Additionally, their performances haven't been wholly dominant in many games, even as the wins have piled up.

As per statistical analysis, in only two games have Villa posted an xG notably superior than the other team. For a side that have put together a ten-match winning streak, the Villans appear strangely fragile – however currently the fine lines are going in their favour.

The Winning Formula

The prevailing tactic seems to be to exchange chances with rivals before hoping Rogers to save the day with some crisp finishes. It happened away to Leeds, it happened in London, and once more versus United.

The initial strike originated from an exquisite effort, arced just inside the upright from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal acted as a slightly less clean iteration of his first as he seized on a pass from Watkins.

“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”

Is It Sustainable?

Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, the opponents registered more efforts and more efforts on goal. They have secured their last eight victories by just one goal. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those fixtures.

Regression to the mean could be the biggest rival they must confront over the coming weeks. The forward, in all likelihood, cannot maintain drilling the football past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.

A Case for Belief

Perhaps there is an alternative path whereby, instead of luck running out, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players may yet rediscover their best form.

• Ollie Watkins may begin to scoring again.
• The attacking talent might become the force he resembled in Germany.
• The defensive duo are set to return from injury, fortifying a sometimes shaky defensive unit.

Maybe within that lies the possibility for a sustained push, however, it is improbable can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.

Relishing the Unlikely

However, this is a surprise. Nobody thought the team would occupy third at Christmas. And certainly earlier this season, nobody thought the young forward as the year closed would be spearheading a title charge while looking like an essential Three Lions star.

This winning streak should be enjoyed precisely because it feels so unlikely. When the hero faced the Villa faithful at the final whistle leading the celebrations, he appeared to be relishing every moment. As he deserves to. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.